(a) trade channels
Trade channels, is refers to a country's financial risk or crisis through foreign trade channels of its trade is closely related to worsen the economic foundation, thus causing financial risk or the spread of the crisis to other countries. This crisis conduction mechanism and divided into two kind of situations:
One is the direct bilateral trade mechanisms, namely in two trade between the countries close ties, a financial crisis led to local currency devaluation happened with domestic consumption and investment, which makes the decline of trade partners, worsening terms of trade and its domestic economic fundamentals are deteriorating. According to Chinese customs statistics, bilateral trade in 2008 has reached 3337.4 billion dollars, which the Chinese export 2523 billion dollars. Bilateral trade and economic scale so huge, thus we have reason to worry, if the U.S. economy and happen because of the financial crisis, a severe recession is highly dependent on the export of Chinese economy will therefore suffer a thud.Certainly China has many foreign trade, the United States in doing some citizens will inevitably be cheat, if want to see how you were tricked into words, just to see how they were tricked into Vibram Running
(Two)it is indirect multilateral trading mechanism, it acting on multiple export structure similar state between, when one of the financial crisis erupted, and cause devaluation export structure similar to other national currency devaluation, if not for the corresponding the price of its exports will lose the competitiveness of the international market, leading to trade income drop, economic conditions deteriorate, induce economic crisis.
In short, our export enterprise in the outbreak in the United States before the financial crisis has affected and the specific performance from overseas orders sharply reduce, product prices were forced to drop, importers payment terms is more demanding, lots of small and medium-sized business failures and foreign evacuated, etc. A data shows, in August 2008, China's export growth rate of 21.1%, lower than the same period in 2007 last month and the level, and is 1 - the lowest growth in August.
Second financial channels
Financial channel's influence is refers to a country has the financial crisis will affect funds, thus tostop cross-border flows of financial market impact. The influence of financial channel is more complicated, can be divided into short term capital flow and long-term capital flows, two aspects analysis.
1, judging from short-term capital flows
Because of China's foreign exchange reserves, strong economic growth of large scale, the yuan has strong appreciation expectations, and dollars for crisis may be depreciated, these two aspects of the causes short-term capital (mainly speculative capital) speed into China. Since 2007 large increase of China's foreign exchange reserves, quite part is the result of short-term capital inflows into China formation. Its adverse influence on China is, a lot of liquidity in the domestic stock market, will tether to market, real estate market caused volatility. From 2006 to 2007 October, the Shanghai index rose to from 1161 points on 16 October 2007 6124 points, 2863 points from shenzhen ChengZhi rose to October 10, 2007 supreme 19600.03 point, in just 14 months which rose 5.27 times and 685 times. Stock market bubble, a real estate bubble has generated.
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More seriously, asset bubble excessive expand on economic development is very dangerous, if the bubble burst, will produce a great bubble cost. In fact, from since October 2007, China shenzhen two city index has been shaken, the Shanghai index fell in November 2008 fell to its lowest ChengZhi to 1664.93 point, shenzhen on 28 October 2008, respectively 5577.23 point of fell 73% and 72%, it is not large, heavy falls not hit the market confidence. It is a short-term capital inflows follow-up negative acceleration.
2, judging from long-term capital flows
On the other hand, under the crisis relatively revaluation of RMB against front of long-term capital inflows. Long-term capital mainly is long-term investment funds, its inward principally for industrial investment. Because of the appreciation of the renminbi later, a unit of foreign currency will be converted into less RMB, thus increasing the long-term capital investment cost. In addition, after a crisis, foreign possible lack of liquidity crisis, part of a foreign-capital enterprise will withdraw from China to ease its domestic parent difficulties in China, which may cause large-scale capital smoke escape behavior.
On the other hand, the U.S. financial crisis is China's enterprises to go out as an opportunity. A because the dollar crisis, leaving a unit of RMB can exchange to more dollars, therefore the domestic enterprises can at lower costs for international investment; 2 it is in crisis, many American companies before facing difficulties, need to inject capital, if these make acquisitions, would be easier. Therefore, the current our country a strength of the company shall be decisive in foreign company attack and strategic acquisitions or investment.
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